This table is basically "How good is the book?" - It takes
the line and the final score and checks how far off the book was from the
actual score. The purpose is to see if the books are really getting better and
therefore it's getting harder to pick games now - or does it just seem that
way?
So let's get back to the analysis. Is it getting harder to pick
games? Let's break it down in 5 year increments and see if things are
changing. I'll say "harder" is when the book is within 3 points of the
actual score (-3 to + 3) inclusive. So what's it show?
| Years | -7 or more | -6.5 to -3.5 | -3 to +3 | +3.5 to +6.5 | 7 or more | Zero |
| 1983-1987 | 345 | 125 | 209 | 87 | 362 | 23 |
| 1988-1992 | 330 | 109 | 234 | 123 | 353 | 22 |
| 1993-1997 | 351 | 135 | 224 | 110 | 362 | 41 |
| 1998-2002 | 363 | 132 | 217 | 145 | 392 | 46 |
| 2003 to 2007 | 408 | 136 | 228 | 125 | 397 | 41 |
| 2008 to Date | | | | | | |
Well, to me it doesn't look any harder now than then. there have
been a lot more 0 differential games but you wouldn't lose any money on those
games. I'm sure others will have opinions on the data .
Here's the whole chart.
| Year | -49 | -46 | -44 | -41 | -40.5 | -40 | -39.5 | -38.5 | -38 | -37.5 | -37 | -36.5 | -35.5 | -35 | -34.5 | -34 | -33.5 | -33 | -32.5 | -32 | -31.5 | -31 | -30.5 | -30 | -29.5 | -29 | -28.5 | -28 | -27.5 | -27 | -26.5 | -26 | -25.5 | -25 | -24.5 | -24 | -23.5 | -23 | -22.5 | -22 | -21.5 | -21 | -20.5 | -20 | -19.5 | -19 | -18.5 | -18 | -17.5 | -17 | -16.5 | -16 | -15.5 | -15 | -14.5 | -14 | -13.5 | -13 | -12.5 | -12 | -11.5 | -11 | -10.5 | -10 | -9.5 | -9 | -8.5 | -8 | -7.5 | -7 | -6.5 | -6 | -5.5 | -5 | -4.5 | -4 | -3.5 | -3 | -2.5 | -2 | -1.5 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 | 6.5 | 7 | 7.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 9 | 9.5 | 10 | 10.5 | 11 | 11.5 | 12 | 12.5 | 13 | 13.5 | 14 | 14.5 | 15 | 15.5 | 16 | 16.5 | 17 | 17.5 | 18 | 18.5 | 19 | 19.5 | 20 | 20.5 | 21 | 21.5 | 22 | 22.5 | 23 | 23.5 | 24 | 24.5 | 25 | 25.5 | 26 | 26.5 | 27 | 27.5 | 28 | 28.5 | 29 | 29.5 | 30 | 30.5 | 31 | 31.5 | 32 | 32.5 | 33 | 33.5 | 34 | 34.5 | 35 | 35.5 | 36 | 36.5 | 37 | 37.5 | 38 | 38.5 | 39.5 | 40 | 40.5 | 41 | 42 | 42.5 | 43 | 43.5 | 44 | 44.5 | 45 | 45.5 | 46 | 47 | 50.5 |
| 1983 | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | | 1 | 2 | | | | | | | | | 1 | 1 | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | 1 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | 2 | | | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | | 2 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | 3 | | 2 | | 2 | | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 2 | | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | | | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | | 1 | | 1 | 1 | | | | 1 | 2 | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | 1 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | | | |
| 1984 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | | | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | 2 | | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | | 2 | | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | | | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | | 1 | 1 | | 1 | | 2 | | 4 | | 2 | 2 | 1 | | 2 | | 1 | | 1 | 2 | 1 | | | | 1 | | 2 | | | | | 1 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 1985 | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | | | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | | | | | | 2 | 1 | 2 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | | 1 | 3 | | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5 | | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | | 1 | 1 | | 1 | | 2 | 2 | 2 | | 3 | | | | 1 | | 2 | | | 3 | 2 | | 1 | | | 1 | 2 | | | | | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 1986 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 1 | | | | 1 | | | 1 | | | | | | | 2 | | | 1 | 1 | | | 1 | | | 1 | | 2 | 3 | | | | 1 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | | 4 | 6 | 8 | 3 | | 5 | | 1 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 10 | | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | | 2 | 2 | 2 | | 1 | 1 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2 | | | 1 | | | 3 | 4 | | 2 | 1 | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | | | | | | 1 | 1 | | | | | | | |
| 1987 | | | | 1 | | | | | | 1 | 1 | | | 2 | | | | | | 1 | | | 1 | 1 | | 1 | | | | 1 | | 1 | | | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | | | | 1 | 3 | 2 | | 1 | | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | | 3 | 4 | | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 5 | | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | | 2 | | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | | | 2 | | 2 | 1 | 1 | | 4 | | 2 | | 1 | | | | | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | 1 | | | | | | | 1 | | | | | | | 1 | | | | | 1 | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 1988 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | 2 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | | 2 | 1 | | 2 | 3 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | 1 | 1 | 2 | | | | | | 1 | | 3 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | | | | | 3 | 1 | 2 | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | 1 | | | 1 | 1 | | | | 1 | | | | | 2 | | | | | | | | | 1 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 1 | | | | | |
| 1989 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | | | | 1 | | | 1 | 1 | | | 1 | | | | | 1 | 2 | 1 | | | 1 | | | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | | | 2 | 2 | 3 | | | 2 | 3 | | 1 | 2 | | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | | 1 | 4 | 2 | | | 1 | 2 | 1 | | | 2 | 3 | | 1 | 1 | | 2 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | | | 1 | | | | | | 1 | 2 | | | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 |
| 1990 | | | | | | 1 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | 1 | 1 | | 3 | | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | | | 3 | 1 | | 1 | 1 | | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | | 4 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | | 1 | 1 | 2 | | | | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | | | 2 | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 1991 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | | | | 1 | | 1 | 3 | | 1 | | | 1 | | 1 | | | | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | |